The Strategic Implications of Somalia’s Puntland Offensive on ISIS in the Horn of Africa

Author: Abdullahi Ciid

For over a decade, the Islamic State (IS) has maintained a significant presence in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somalia’s Puntland region, where the Cal Miskaat mountains have served as a critical stronghold. However, the group is now facing its most formidable challenge yet—one that threatens its very existence in the region. A joint offensive led by Puntland security forces, supported by U.S. and UAE airstrikes, has liberated the majority of territories previously controlled by IS Somalia. Launched in January 2025, the operation, codenamed *Hillaac*, has rapidly advanced toward IS strongholds, dismantling key logistical and financial networks. This article examines the strategic implications of this offensive on IS Somalia, its African affiliates, and the broader IS global network.

The Strategic Importance of Cal Miskaat

The Cal Miskaat mountains, stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Gulf of Aden, are not just a rugged terrain but a geostrategic linchpin. The Gulf of Aden is one of the world’s busiest maritime routes, connecting the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Over 25,000 ships, including cargo vessels, oil tankers, and naval fleets, transit through this corridor annually. IS Somalia has exploited this strategic location since 2015, establishing a safe haven in the 250 -square-kilometer mountainous region. With limited government presence, the group has used the area to recruit fighters, smuggle weapons, and extort local businesses, particularly in the port city of Bosaso.

As highlighted in a September 2024 report by the International Crisis Group, IS Somalia transformed Cal Miskaat into a financial and logistical hub for the broader IS network, particularly its African affiliates. The group amassed significant funds through extortion, which were funneled into IS operations across Africa and beyond. This financial lifeline enabled IS Somalia to contribute to the global IS network, making its defeat a priority for regional and international counterterrorism efforts.

The Puntland Offensive: A Turning Point

The *Hillaac* offensive, which began in January 2025, marks a watershed moment in the fight against IS Somalia. Puntland forces, bolstered by U.S. and UAE air support, have made significant strides in dismantling IS operations. Hundreds of fighters have been killed, and critical assets, including financial resources, have been seized. For instance, operatives discovered significant sums of money stored in electronic wallets on SIM cards, a reflection of the group’s reliance on Somalia’s mobile money system. These funds, amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars, were integral to IS Somalia’s extortion networks and its ability to finance operations across Africa.

The offensive has also targeted IS operatives in urban centers like Bosaso, disrupting their extortion rackets and dismantling their financial infrastructure. This has dealt a severe blow to the group’s ability to sustain itself financially. Moreover, the loss of Cal Miskaat disrupts IS Somalia’s supply routes and logistical networks, which were critical for procuring ammunition and facilitating the movement of fighters across the region. As noted in the U.S. State Department’s 2022 report on Somalia, IS Somalia’s logistical capabilities were a key enabler for its African affiliates, making this disruption a significant setback for IS operations continent-wide.

Implications for IS Africa and the Global Network

The fall of Cal Miskaat has far-reaching implications for IS Africa and the broader IS network. IS Somalia had become a vital node in the group’s African operations, providing financial support, training, and logistical coordination. The loss of this hub weakens IS affiliates in Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and other parts of the continent, where IS has been expanding its footprint in recent years. As highlighted in a 2023 report by the Combating Terrorism Center, IS Somalia’s contributions to the global network were not limited to finances; the group also served as a recruitment and propaganda hub, amplifying IS’s ideological reach in the region.

Strategically, IS is also losing a geographic stronghold it has controlled for over a decade. The group had recently celebrated a symbolic victory by expelling Al-Shabaab from Cal Miskaat, consolidating its dominance in the region. However, the *Hillaac* offensive has denied IS the opportunity to capitalize on this victory. The rapid advance of Puntland forces has forced IS into a defensive posture, undermining its ability to project power and maintain its ideological narrative of invincibility.

Challenges and the Road Ahead

While the *Hillaac* offensive has achieved significant gains, the fight against IS Somalia is far from over. The group retains pockets of resistance, and its fighters are likely to resort to asymmetric tactics, including guerrilla warfare and targeted assassinations, to maintain their presence. Additionally, the underlying conditions that allowed IS to thrive such as weak governance, economic marginalization, and clan rivalries remain unaddressed. As the Crisis Group report emphasizes, a purely military approach is insufficient to ensure long-term stability. Sustainable peace will require addressing the root causes of extremism, including governance reforms, economic development, and community engagement.

Moreover, the offensive has exposed the fragile nature of counterterrorism partnerships in the region. While the collaboration between Puntland forces, the U.S., and the UAE has been effective, it underscores the reliance on external actors for security. Building the capacity of local forces and fostering regional cooperation will be critical to preventing the resurgence of IS or other extremist groups.

Conclusion

The Puntland offensive represents a pivotal moment in the fight against IS Somalia and its affiliates in the Horn of Africa. By dismantling the group’s financial and logistical networks, the operation has dealt a significant blow to IS’s operations in Africa and its global network. However, the long-term success of this campaign will depend on addressing the structural issues that enable extremism to thrive. As the offensive continues, the international community must remain vigilant, ensuring that the gains made on the battlefield are consolidated through sustainable peacebuilding efforts. The defeat of IS Somalia would not only mark a victory for the Horn of Africa but also strike a strategic blow to the global IS network.

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Authored by: Abdullahi Ciid  
E-mail: Mrabdullahi.nur@gmail.com  
Twitter: @Abdullahi_Eid